Avrupa Merkez Bankası Anketi: Bu yıl için büyüme tahmini yüzde 1.4'e çıkarıldı

20 Ocak 2017 04:53

Avrupa Merkez Bankası (AMB) tarafından yayımlanan "Profesyonel Tahminciler Anketi" raporunda, Euro Bölgesindeki enflasyonun, petrol fiyatlarının yükselmesi nedeniyle hem bu yıl hem de önümüzdeki yıl beklenenden biraz daha yüksek olacağı bildirilerek, beklenti bu yıl için yüzde 1,2’den 1,4’e, 2018 için ise 1,4’ten yüzde 1,5’e çıkarıldı.

Bloomberg HT'de yer alan habere göre, Euro Bölgesinde 2017 yılı enflasyon beklentisinin yüzde 1,2’den yüzde 1,4’e ve 2018 için yüzde 1,4’ten yüzde 1,5’e yükseltildiği aktarılan raporda, bu yukarı yönlü revizyonların büyük oranda Petrol fiyatındaki artışı yansıttığı ifade edildi.

Raporda ayrıca 2019 için enflasyon beklentisinin yüzde 1,6, 2021 yılını kapsayan uzun dönem enflasyon beklentisinin de yüzde 1,8 olarak korunduğu belirtildi.

Raporda, reel GSYH artışı beklentisinde yalnızca 2017 için yukarı yönlü revizyon yapıldığı kaydedildi. Tek Para Birliğinde 2017 yılı GSYH artış beklentisinin yüzde 1,4’ten yüzde 1,5’e revize edildiği, 2018 ve 2019 için yüzde 1,5’lik artış beklentisinin korunduğu ve 2021 için de yüzde 1,6’da bırakıldığı kaydedildi.

İşsizlik tahminleri aşağı çekildi

Euro Bölgesi işsizlik oranı tahminlerinde de değişiklik yapıldı. Raporda, bu yıl için daha önce 2016 yılı 4’üncü çeyrekte açıklanan yüzde 9,7’lik işsizliğin yüzde 9,5’e, gelecek yıl için yüzde 9,3’ten 9,2’ye indirildiği ve 2019 yılı için yüzde 8,9’da tutulduğu kaydedildi. İşsizlik tahmininin 2021 için yüzde 8,7’den yüzde 8,5’e düşürüldüğü bildirildi.

Öte yandan, raporda 4-11 Ocak'ta gerçekleştirilen söz konusu ankete katılanların, Avrupa Birliğindeki (AB) finansal veya finansal olmayan kuruluşlara bağlı uzmanlardan oluştuğu, anket sonuçlarının AMB karar organları veya AMB personelinin görüşlerini temsil etmediği bildirildi.

Davos'ta yapılan Dünya Ekonomik Forumu ikinci gününde Doğan Holding Yönetim Kurulu Başkanı Begümhan Doğan Faralyalı izlenimlerini paylaştı:

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