Deprem uzmanı beklenen Marmara depremi için tarih verdi

09 Mart 2017 05:15

Deprem uzmanı, İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi (İTÜ) Jeofizik Mühendisliği Bölümü Prof. Dr. Övgün Ahmet Ercan, beklenen Marmara depremi için, olası tarihleri 2039-2040 olarak verdi.

Prof. Dr. Övgün Ahmet Ercan, yaptığı yazılı açıklamada Çevre ve Şehircilik Bakanı Mehmet Özhaseki'nin Kuzey Marmara'da 2030 yılına dek, 7.2 büyüklüğünde deprem beklendiği yönündeki açıklamasını değerlendirdi. Ercan "Eğer, sayın bakanın sözünü ettiği gibi 2030'dan önce İstanbul'da deprem olacaksa, bunun büyüklüğünün 6.5'u geçmesi beklenmemelidir" dedi.

Çevre Bakanı beklenen İstanbul depremi için tarih verdi

İki bin yıllık depremleri inceleyen Prof. Dr. Ercan "Kuzey Marmara'da son 2 bin yıldır olan depremler incelendiğinde 6.6 ile 7.2 büyüklüğü arasında bir deprem olma olasılığı yüzde 24'dür. Böyle bir deprem 6.7 büyüklüğünde 1935 yılında Erdek'te olmuştu. Bu büyüklükteki depremler her 104 yılda bir olmaktadır. Buna göre olası dönem sonu 2039-2040'dır. Marmara'da 7.2'den büyük bir deprem olma olasılığı ise yüzde 5'dir. Bu büyüklükte bir deprem 570 yılda bir olmaktadır. Gölcük depreminin 7.5 olması nedeniyle, Marmara aşırı orada dinginleşmiş, büyük bir deprem yaratma olasılığı azalmıştır. Böyle bir deprem 2500 yılından önce olması şaşırtıcı olur. Ne var ki, Marmara'nın en çok olan depremleri, yüzde 71 olasılıkla; 6.0 ile 6.5 büyüklükleri arasındaki depremleridir ki, bunlar da her 30 yılda bir olmaktadır. Eğer, sayın bakanın sözünü ettiği gibi 2030'dan önce İstanbul'da deprem olacaksa, bunun büyüklüğünün 6.5'u geçmesi beklenmemelidir" ifadesine yer verdi.

Prof. Dr. Övgün Ahmet Ercan daha önce de, canlı yayında büyük İstanbul depremi için tarih vermişti:

</p> </div><div class="flex flex-wrap -mx-1"><a class="m-1 rounded-lg px-2 py-1 uppercase text-xs bg-lightGrey" href="/etiket/%C3%96vg%C3%BCn%20Ahmet%20Ercan">Övgün Ahmet Ercan</a><a class="m-1 rounded-lg px-2 py-1 uppercase text-xs bg-lightGrey" href="/etiket/%20%C4%B0T%C3%9C"> İTÜ</a><a class="m-1 rounded-lg px-2 py-1 uppercase text-xs bg-lightGrey" href="/etiket/%20%C3%87evre%20ve%20%C5%9Eehircilik%20Bakan%C4%B1"> Çevre ve Şehircilik Bakanı</a><a class="m-1 rounded-lg px-2 py-1 uppercase text-xs bg-lightGrey" href="/etiket/%20Mehmet%20%C3%96zhaseki"> Mehmet Özhaseki</a><a class="m-1 rounded-lg px-2 py-1 uppercase text-xs bg-lightGrey" href="/etiket/%20Marmara%20depremi"> Marmara depremi</a><a class="m-1 rounded-lg px-2 py-1 uppercase text-xs bg-lightGrey" href="/etiket/%20tarih"> tarih</a><a class="m-1 rounded-lg px-2 py-1 uppercase text-xs bg-lightGrey" href="/etiket/%20verdi"> verdi</a></div></div></div></div><div class="hidden 2xl:block 2xl:shrink-0 sticky top-24 mt-12 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Ercan \u0026quot;Eğer, sayın bakanın s\u0026ouml;z\u0026uuml;n\u0026uuml; ettiği gibi 2030\u0026#39;dan \u0026ouml;nce İstanbul\u0026#39;da deprem olacaksa, bunun b\u0026uuml;y\u0026uuml;kl\u0026uuml;ğ\u0026uuml;n\u0026uuml;n 6.5\u0026#39;u ge\u0026ccedil;mesi beklenmemelidir\u0026quot; dedi.\u003c/p\u003e\r\r\u003cp\u003e\u003ca href=\"http://t24.com.tr/haber/cevre-bakani-beklenen-istanbul-depremi-icin-tarih-verdi,390508\" target=\"_blank\"\u003e\u0026Ccedil;evre Bakanı beklenen İstanbul depremi i\u0026ccedil;in tarih verdi\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\r\r\u003cp\u003eİki bin yıllık depremleri inceleyen Prof. Dr. Ercan \u0026quot;Kuzey Marmara\u0026#39;da son 2 bin yıldır olan depremler incelendiğinde 6.6 ile 7.2 b\u0026uuml;y\u0026uuml;kl\u0026uuml;ğ\u0026uuml; arasında bir deprem olma olasılığı y\u0026uuml;zde 24\u0026#39;d\u0026uuml;r. B\u0026ouml;yle bir deprem 6.7 b\u0026uuml;y\u0026uuml;kl\u0026uuml;ğ\u0026uuml;nde 1935 yılında Erdek\u0026#39;te olmuştu. Bu b\u0026uuml;y\u0026uuml;kl\u0026uuml;kteki depremler her 104 yılda bir olmaktadır. Buna g\u0026ouml;re olası d\u0026ouml;nem sonu 2039-2040\u0026#39;dır. Marmara\u0026#39;da 7.2\u0026#39;den b\u0026uuml;y\u0026uuml;k bir deprem olma olasılığı ise y\u0026uuml;zde 5\u0026#39;dir. Bu b\u0026uuml;y\u0026uuml;kl\u0026uuml;kte bir deprem 570 yılda bir olmaktadır. G\u0026ouml;lc\u0026uuml;k depreminin 7.5 olması nedeniyle, Marmara aşırı orada dinginleşmiş, b\u0026uuml;y\u0026uuml;k bir deprem yaratma olasılığı azalmıştır. B\u0026ouml;yle bir deprem 2500 yılından \u0026ouml;nce olması şaşırtıcı olur. Ne var ki, Marmara\u0026#39;nın en \u0026ccedil;ok olan depremleri, y\u0026uuml;zde 71 olasılıkla; 6.0 ile 6.5 b\u0026uuml;y\u0026uuml;kl\u0026uuml;kleri arasındaki depremleridir ki, bunlar da her 30 yılda bir olmaktadır. 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