UBS: Fed'in faiz senaryosunu değiştirmesi en fazla Rand ve TL'yi etkiler

01 Şubat 2017 10:50

Küresel piyasalarda gözler, ABD Merkez Bankası (Fed) toplantısından çıkacak kararlara çevrildi. Amerikan bankası UBS'e göre Fed'in faiz artırımı senaryosunu değiştirirse Güney Afrika (Rand) ve Türkiye (TL) paraları en büyük darbeyi alacak.

ABD'de dün başlayan ve kararları bugün saat 22.00'de açıklanacak Fed Açık Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC) toplantısı piyasaların odak noktasında yer alıyor. FOMC'nin faiz artırımına gitmeyeceğine kesin gözüyle bakılırken, piyasa, karar metninde, ABD Başkanı Donald Trump ile ilgili FOMC'nin ilk izlenimlerini anlamaya çalışacak.

UBS Varlık Yönetimi, 2.1 trilyon dolarlık varlığa sahip müşterilerinin, geçen yılki rallinin ardından gelişen piyasa varlıklarındaki pozisyonlarını artırmaya hazır olduklarını dile getirdi.

BloombergHT'de yer alan habere göre, Zürih'te gelişen piyasa varlıkları birim yöneticisi Michael Bolliger, söz konusu varlık sınıfı için bu yıl orta-yüksek tek haneli getiri öngörüyor. Bolliger'a göre 2016 yılında hisse senetleri ve tahvillerde görülen güçlü performansın ardından müşteriler, -bu ülkelere fon girişinin bu yıl da devam etmesinin etkisiyle- gelişen piyasa varlıklarına yatırım yapma konusunda rahat hissediyorlar.

Bolliger, 27 Ocak'ta gerçekleştirilen bir mülakata “İyi bir yıldı ve insanlar bu durumu dikkate aldı. Isınmaları ve ilgilerinin artması için (gelişen piyasalarda) bir kaç çeyrek boyunca iyi performans kaydedilmesi gerekiyordu. Şu an olan şey budur” dedi.

Bolliger'ın işaret ettiği noktalar şöyle:

UBS müşterileri Orta Doğu'da ya yoklar ya da çok az varlık gösteriyorlar. Petrol ve doğalgaz ihracatına bağımlılığı azaltacak reform programları ve planlaruzun vadeli yatırımcılar için fırsatlar sunacak.

Rus hisse senetleri Bolliger'ın favori varlık grubu ve yerel tahvillerden hisse senetlerine dönüyor. Bolliger'a göre Rusya'daki resesyon sona erdi ve büyüme yüzde 1.5'e kadar çıkabilir.

ABD istihdam piyasası gelişen piyasalar için risk oluşturuyor. Hız kazanan ücret enflasyonu Fed'i 2017 yılında iki faiz artırımı olacak bir senaryodan dört ya da beş faiz artırımı olacak bir senaryoya geçmeye teşvik edebilir. Güney Afrika ve Türkiye paraları en büyük darbeyi alacak olanlar.

ABD ve İngiltere'de Trump karşıtı protestolar: Nefrete ve korkuya hayır, göçmenlere kapımız açık!

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Şu an olan şey budur\u0026rdquo; dedi.\u003c/p\u003e\r\r\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eBolliger\u0026#39;ın işaret ettiği noktalar ş\u0026ouml;yle:\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\r\r\u003cp\u003eUBS m\u0026uuml;şterileri Orta Doğu\u0026#39;da ya yoklar ya da \u0026ccedil;ok az varlık g\u0026ouml;steriyorlar.\u0026nbsp;Petrol\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;ve doğalgaz ihracatına bağımlılığı azaltacak reform programları ve planlaruzun vadeli yatırımcılar i\u0026ccedil;in fırsatlar sunacak.\u003c/p\u003e\r\r\u003cp\u003eRus hisse senetleri Bolliger\u0026#39;ın favori varlık grubu ve yerel tahvillerden hisse senetlerine d\u0026ouml;n\u0026uuml;yor. Bolliger\u0026#39;a g\u0026ouml;re Rusya\u0026#39;daki resesyon sona erdi ve b\u0026uuml;y\u0026uuml;me y\u0026uuml;zde 1.5\u0026#39;e kadar \u0026ccedil;ıkabilir.\u003c/p\u003e\r\r\u003cp\u003eABD istihdam piyasası gelişen piyasalar i\u0026ccedil;in risk oluşturuyor. 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